At the 2019 Torrey Pines Bank Economic Forum, prominent economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics shared his prediction that there is a low chance of recession in the next 24 months.

Thornberg pointed out that 2018 was clearly a solid year for the U.S. economy. The nation’s economy grew by 2.9%, acceleration in growth occurred in almost all sectors, and the labor markets added plenty of jobs. Still, public sentiment is remarkably grim as we move further into 2019, with a number of predictions calling for a recession in the next two years.

Thornberg disagrees, stating most of the current concerns are unfounded.

While eventually the current U.S. economic expansion will come to an end, Thornberg has yet to see any imbalance with the capacity to cause a downturn, much less a recession, in the near term.

To close out the event, Thornberg shared a candid look at what he believes Americans are worried about – and what we should be worried about. Check out this comparison, what Thornberg calls, “The Great Disconnect” in his full presentation, available for download.

2019 Regional Intelligence Report: Insights for San Diego

The San Diego Regional Intelligence Report was released in conjunction with the Forum.  Key findings include:

  • California is facing a huge housing challenge due to lack of inventory, and this is especially evident in San Diego where home sales fell by 12.8% from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018 because of lean supplies and decreasing affordability.
  • San Diego’s commercial real estate market remains strong. Not only have rents increased year over year, but a healthy amount of construction has kept rents from rising too quickly.
  • California continues to add new jobs year over year across nearly all of the state’s industries. With an unemployment rate of 3.5% and paychecks on the rise, San Diego’s labor market remains tight; almost anybody who wants a job today has one.
  • San Diego has attracted strong venture capital investment in recent years, receiving a record $103.4 billion in 2018. Beacon Economics predicts that San Diego County will remain a magnet for venture capital over the forseeable future.

For additional insights, download the Regional Intelligence Report and Dr. Thornberg’s full presentation.



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Torrey Pines Bank, a division of Western Alliance Bank, Member FDIC, helps business clients realize their growth ambitions. Founded in 2003, Torrey Pines Bank offers a full spectrum of loan, deposit and treasury management capabilities, plus superior service. With nine offices throughout San Diego and Los Angeles, along with Western Alliance Bank’s powerful array of specialized financial services, the banking division is a valued resource for Southern California’s business, real estate, professional, municipal and nonprofit communities. Western Alliance Bank is the primary subsidiary of Phoenix-based Western Alliance Bancorporation. One of the country’s top-performing banking companies, Western Alliance is ranked #1 regional bank by S&P Global Market Intelligence for 2018 and in the top 10 on the Forbes “Best Banks in America” list for four consecutive years, 2016-2019.